(The Case of Gulf)

By: Ambassador Ahmed Salem Al-Wahishi Ph.D.

(Yemeni International Affairs Centre)

The Middle East has entered a phase of transition, governments crumbling, new social forces emerging, and international tensions. However, while the non transitional countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia's surroundings is predominated by this great turmoil, yet to some extent, remains stable and secure thanks to the continual investment of governments in infrastructure and security, with economic growth, and in the case of Saudi Arabia over $600 billion in foreign reserves. This is not to say that the Gulf Non Transitional Sheikdoms and Kingdoms are without its challenges, both from within and outside its borders, with the challenges still they have every intention of using their vast resources to help their neighbours facing the current difficult conditions.

The Gulf remains focused on the difficult realities that almost always follow social upheaval based on popular uprisings. Strife in Yemen remains highly problematic. The situation in Bahrain seems to have not yet stabilized and could flare up again.

While these tenuous conditions are of relatively recent emergence, several older problems that have been brewing for some time, as it were – exist. First among these, and intimately linked with the difficulties many Arab countries are now facing, is the case of the ambitions of Iran’s leaders. There are two overwhelming issues with them– firstly their ambition to acquire nuclear weapons and secondly their persistent meddling in the affairs of other countries. As for the issue of nuclear weapons, the Gulf continues to insist that Iran’s leaders should give up their goal of acquiring nuclear weapons and support, by deed, the creation of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East and here have come the urgent need for the holding of the UN Conference 2012 on MEWMSFZ as an international and regional collective effort to convince Iran of this path. The tightening of sanctions, assertive diplomacy, and concerted action in dealing with Iran’s Nuclear file are continuing via the United Nations. The MEWMD Free Zone must include an incentives regime for countries that join, composed not only of technical and economic support for member countries to develop civilian uses of nuclear energy, but also a nuclear security umbrella for the zone’s member countries guaranteed by the five permanent members of the Security Council. It should also have a sanctions regime for countries that refuse to join MEWMDFZ.

When one is discussing security and stability in Gulf, one inevitably comes to the issue of global energy. Pipelines and shipping lines run throughout the region, crossing areas of great contention and conflict reflected in the statements we hear these days about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The perceived stability of the region plays an ever more important role in oil markets and their influence on pricing, which inevitably affects almost every economy in the world.

As we look out onto the wider global energy market through the Arab Spring, what do we see? Again, we see transition. Among what we see, are the plans of the Gulf governments to work together with international community to guarantee an energy mix that comes from a variety of stable sources. UAE and Saudi Arabia, plans to play a major role in achieving Nuclear Reactors for peaceful power do exist as well.