“West Asia in Transitional Period of International Order” February 13, 2013 at IDSA

 

 

 

 

The sweeping effects of Arab turmoil have been felt all over West Asia and North Africa. The reasons of these developments are said to be many but “regime failure” is one of the important factors that gave legitimate reason for the people to demand for change with the aim of reversing the unbearable conditions.

 

The Middle East has entered a phase of transition, governments crumbling, new social forces emerging, and international tensions. While the non transitional countries surroundings are predominated by this great turmoil, yet to some extent, remains stable and secure. Thanks to the continual investments of the governments in infrastructure and security.

 

The Gulf States are encountering challenges, yet with these challenges including the use of their vast resources to help their neighbors facing the current difficult conditions.

 

The Gulf remains focused on the difficult realities such as the Strife in Yemen. The “Failed State Index” of the “Fund for Peace” ranks Yemen as 13^th of 177 states in 2011. Due to inefficiency, underdeveloped state institutions and corruption, the state lacks the power to fulfill its key tasks: providing security, an effective civil administration, basic services for the people, and the rule of law.  By this, the Republic of Yemen faces various political challenges putting its stability in danger.

 

The Yemeni experience in the face of recent developments represents political solution that saves the country from civil war, damage and created change based on the GCC initiative for the step down of former president to have the transitional phase peacefully, solve the issues through national dialogue such as the issue of South Yemen, and thanks for increasing international and regional support which includes the developmental support in addition to the political and security one.

 

When one is discussing security and stability in Gulf, one inevitably comes to the issue of global energy. Pipelines and shipping lines run throughout the region threatened by terrorism and piracy, crossing areas of great contention and conflict reflected in the statements we hear these days about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The perceived stability of the region plays an ever more important role in oil markets and their influence on pricing, which inevitably affects almost every economy in the world.

 

Among the alternatives to overcome the threats of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz there are Emirati pipelines diverted to seas other than the Gulf including the pipeline to Fujairah, UAE. The capacity of the pipeline cannot transfer all the needed productions. This requires having more pipelines extended particularly to open seas linked to the Indian Ocean, which means to extend pipelines to Oman, Southern Coast of Yemen and Fujairah cost of UAE.

 

As we look out onto the wider global energy market through the Arab Turmoil. What do we see? Again, we see transition. Among what we see, are the plans of the Gulf governments to work together with international community to guarantee an energy mix that comes from a variety of stable sources. UAE and Saudi Arabia, plans to play a major role in achieving nuclear reactors for peaceful power do exist as well.

 

The MEWMD Free Zone must include an incentives regime for countries that join, composed not only of technical and economic support for member countries to develop civilian uses of nuclear energy, but also a nuclear security umbrella for the zone’s member countries guaranteed by the five permanent members of the Security Council. It should also have a sanction regime for countries that refuse to join MEWMDFZ.

 

When the turmoil was sweeping across West Asia and North Africa, it had its impacts on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. West Bank and Gaza Strip witnessed marches calling for an end to the political split between Fatah and Hamas. The agreement, which concluded two years of Egyptian efforts to promote inter-organizational reconciliation, was signed by the leadership of the two competing organizations. It focused on the intention to hold elections for presidency and the parliament “legislative council”. Open questions to be raised here are: Will the election take place? Which political party will win?

 

The already minimal willingness of the Israeli leadership to take responsibility to stop building settlements in the West Bank will decline the possibility to revive the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. This presents a danger of renewal of violent confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians.

 

Indeed, measures that would demonstrate readiness to fundamentally change the political and territorial realities in the conflict region remain a prerequisite for the Palestinians to negotiate Israel. The international solidarity with the Palestinian cause, the Palestinian political representation at the United Nations will improve the position of the Palestinians in the region who strive for a compromise through peace negotiations with Israel.

 

An attractive initiative for the Palestinians, which may serve as a basis for a solution, offers several advantages: First, it would extricate Israel from its growing isolation in the international and regional arenas. Second, it would strengthen Fatah and Abbas in their struggle for legitimacy and leadership. So far, the political party which supports peaceful solutions has not been rewarded for its moderation.

 

Two years after the fall of some leaders of the region, those who brought the wind of change out of the cries of being denied a future, amongst them the university educated jobless young people who are facing greater challenges than before. Unemployment has doubled since then.

 

Foreign investment and tourism- the base of economies for these transition countries have come to a standstill and it did not take long before people went out to streets again demonstrating for food and sustenance.

 

The return of hundreds of thousands of laborers because of the global economic crisis has also increased demands on job opportunities. The question that I would like to raise: Will the new leaders of political Islamists be able to achieve economic stability for their people? We are more concerned about the economic hardship that the people of the region will be facing in the coming years, then what kind of constitution they will come out with.

 

On January 5, 2012 President Obama summed up the United States attitude with respect to Arab Spring: “not every country will follow our particular form of representative democracy, and there will be times when our short-term interests do not align perfectly with our long term vision for the region.” Still, it is important to highlight some of the main characters of the evolving US policy:

• There is no one policy towards all uprisings in the Arab World. The United States of America deals with each case, based on its unique circumstances. Thus, American policy towards Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen varies significantly.
• US has approached all important players in the region including the islamists.
• The US prefers to let domestic forces and regional powers to take the lead.
• US have supported peaceful and transparent democratic change.

 

On January 2013, H. Clinton declared in the recent session in US congress that Arab Spring brought instability, extremism, arm spread, and unexperienced governments.

 

As a democrat and advocate of peace, I have to conclude by praising the transition for reform and change in spite of all the concerns. I applauded the people of the region as they broke through the fear and all that took place through the power and willingness of the people; for the freedom that the people of the region were aiming and finally gaining. But now, it is time to voice concern, because the tyrants of yesterday may be gone, but it appears that a new form of tyranny has been set loose and the people who brought it to be, may very well be the ones who will suffer most by it.

 

I wish the regimes in the region can find a way of creating a form of political Islam that is tolerant to people of other faiths and people who want to be governed by civil modern state. I especially hope that the youth and women of the region will find the means to share the freedom and dignity that they too fought for. This, to me, will be the real barometer of the success of the Arab spring.